Workflow for Applying Simple Models to Forecast Production from Hydraulically Fractured Shale Wells
Recorded on January 9, 2014 (90 minutes)

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The industry has devoted a great deal of attention in recent years to production decline models that might serve as alternatives to the Arps hyperbolic decline model for hydraulically fractured wells with long-duration transient flow. These efforts have arisen because the Arps model was developed for reservoirs in the boundary-dominated flow regime, whereas much onshore development in North America has focused on ultra-low permeability reservoirs, such as shales, which may remain in the transient flow regime for many months or years.

Several alternatives, such as the Stretched Exponential, Power-Law, Duong, and Long-duration Transient Linear Flow models have been proposed and studied. All, including the Arps model, have potentially useful applications in shales, but their accuracy may be enhanced substantially if we follow a systematic workflow. The workflow includes pressure normalization of observed well rates, systematic application of diagnostic plots to identify individual flow regimes that appear in well production histories, and application of different (but appropriate) models to data in each distinct flow regime.

These ideas will be discussed in depth in this webinar.

John Lee is Professor of Petroleum Engineering and holder of the Cullen Distinguished University Chair at The University of Houston. Lee holds BS, MS and PhD degrees in chemical engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Lee worked for ExxonMobil early in his career and specialized in integrated reservoir studies. He later joined the Petroleum Engineering faculty at Texas A&M, and became Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering. While at A&M, he also served as a consultant with S.A. Holditch & Associates, where he specialized in reservoir engineering aspects of unconventional gas resources.

Lee joined the University of Houston faculty in September 2011. He served as an Academic Engineering Fellow with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) in Washington during 2007-8, and was a principal architect of the modernized SEC rules for reporting oil and gas reserves.

Lee is the author of three textbooks published by SPE and has received numerous awards from SPE, including the Lucas Medal, the DeGolyer Distinguished Service Medal and Honorary Membership. He is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences.