Oil and Gas Economics and Uncertainty
Recorded on December 4, 2013 (90 minutes)

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Just about all petroleum engineers know how to calculate the basic econometrics:  Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV) and Profitability Index (PI), as well as other calculations such as earnings, cash flow, etc.  However, at the outset, does one actually know the parameters used in the calculations?  Is there any uncertainty in costs, production rates and future product prices?  This webinar will hit ten topics at a very high level.  These ten topics are:

1.Putting forth a definition of risk that one can quantify;
2.Illustrating a few key weaknesses of the basic econometric calculations;
3.Briefly reviewing statistics;
4.Illustrating why forecasting prices is futile but show a way to handle the situation;
5.Reviewing evidence of the risk/return relationship;
6.Showing an example of forecasting that quantifies production, price, and if desired, other uncertainties, too;
7.Addressing the issue of operational volatility reduction;
8.Briefly reviewing the basics of hedging;
9.Showing how to objectively quantify peer review thoughts;
10.Presenting a few thoughts concerning portfolio design and management

Three of the above ten topics are specifically addressed in JPT articles written by the instructor, with another of the topics having an article on it in Oil and Gas Investor.  Two SPE conference papers also address portions of the ten topics above.  Hence, the webinar attendee will leave with resources to further study economics and uncertainty, if desired, in addition to what's covered in the webinar.

In summary, oil and gas professionals work in an uncertain world with significant unknowns at every turn.  This webinar will give an engineer a few tools and thoughts on how to quantify and think about their unique situations so that they can better serve their companies, the industry and society at large.


Rodney (Rod) Schulz
is formerly from ConocoPhillips where he held a variety of engineering (primarily reservoir), finance, and organizational efficiency positions throughout North America over 15 years. Since leaving ConocoPhillips in 2009, Schulz has served as an expert witness on oil and gas asset valuation for a federal bankruptcy court and a major international law firm.

In addition to his oil and gas production experience. He has also served as the financial director/CFO for an organization with 150 employees in six states. In 2003, while still with ConocoPhillips, he started Schulz Financial, a retail investment advisory company that now manages $7 million for 27 households/40 clients and boasts a 98% client retention ratio through a very difficult time for equity markets. Currently, Schulz is putting together several oil and gas field redevelopment deals in south Texas while continuing to grow Schulz Financial and Schulz Consulting.

Schulz has a BS in petroleum engineering from the University of Kansas and an MBA from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.